Bundesliga Match Day 12: Change in Model, Change in Leader

Yes, Leverkusen still leads the Bundesliga with 28 points. They thoroughly dissected Cologne, shredding the home side for four goals. Hradecky was untested, his lightning quick teammates earned him a clean sheet. Munich stays on pace. Bayern handed Wolfsburg their first, heartbreaking loss of the season behind a brace from Lewy. Leipzig are nipping at their heels, picking up a tight win from Hoffenheim. Both Bayern and the Red Bulls are a point back at 27, with Bayern ahead on goal differential. Of these three leadership matches, Leverkusen were the most impressive, though they had the easiest day on paper. Yes, the Workself lead the league but they no longer lead the Martindex. Union are now on top.

The “market value” figures we use come from Transfermarkt. Based on their data, we use a linear regression model to control for the imbalance in talent. Talent is not normally distributed through the league so we decided that it makes more sense to use the log of market value as our independent variable. The dependent variable is, naturally, points. The model is still under development and is subject to revision. As it stands, however, Union Berlin are on top with the most outstanding squad in the Bundesliga. They are overperforming the prediction by three full wins, or 9 points.

Click to play with Dashboard

North-Rhine Westphalia continues to be the heart of football in Germany with six teams in the top division. Schalke are seriously struggling and will be relegated if they cannot turn their season around. Cologne are not safe and their poor showing against Leverkusen demonstrated just how far they need to grow in order to be comfortable at the Big Boys’ Table. Berlin have very passionate fans but Union fans will likely be most happy with their relative success compared to their crosstown rivals, Herta. Feel free to play with the dashboard.

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